Extraordinary and legendary items

[rijackson741]

OK. I see. That is one way to change the probability depending on the number of kills. However, if the "pool" was 20,000, then after 10,000 kills the probability of getting a drop would be far higher than 50% (although I don't know exactly what it would be without calculating it). Also, without complicating the calculation the probability of getting a drop on the first kill would clearly be 1 in 20,0000, not 1 in 10,000.

Regardless of the details, I understand the suggestion.

[Kashim]

If the pool was 20,000, then the probability of getting a drop would be 50% after 10,000 kills. Since you are selecting a random number between 1 and 20,000, there is a 50% chance that it will be below 10,000, and a 50% chance it will be above 10,000. Since you increment the counter from 0 when implementing this, that makes it exactly 50%. In a deck with 19,999 blank cards, and one ace of spades, what are the odds that out of the first 10,000 cards you draw, you will get an ace of spades? 50/50.
The strange result: this would actually lower probability of initial drops. In fact, for the first 10,000 drops, the probability per drop would be (much) lower than the original 1/10,000. So as much as it reduces frustration, it does also have the side effect of also reducing the potential to get crazy lucky. It does have cost on both ends. If you wanted, you could make the pool 15,000/(MF/2 + 1). So with a MF of 0, you'd probably find one within 7,500 kills, and would guarantee within 15k. MF2 would be probably 3750, guaranteed in 7500. MF 8 probably 1875, guaranteed in 3750, etc.

Chipping away. 912 trainers+masters killed, so far no drop.

[rijackson741]

If the pool was 20,000, then the probability of getting a drop would be 50% after 10,000 kills. Since you are selecting a random number between 1 and 20,000, there is a 50% chance that it will be below 10,000, and a 50% chance it will be above 10,000.

My comment was based on your statement "The current odds of finding are maintained: you have about a 1 in 10,000 chance of finding the legendary on any given kill. That is to say, in 10,000 kills, you will have had a 50/50 chance to have found the legendary", which is rather ambiguous. I took it to mean that with the current random with replacement scheme at 10,000 kills you have a 50/50 chance, which is not correct. With the random without replacement scheme, yes it would be 50/50.

The strange result: this would actually lower probability of initial drops. In fact, for the first 10,000 drops, the probability per drop would be (much) lower than the original 1/10,000. So as much as it reduces frustration, it does also have the side effect of also reducing the potential to get crazy lucky. It does have cost on both ends. If you wanted, you could make the pool 15,000/(MF/2 + 1). So with a MF of 0, you'd probably find one within 7,500 kills, and would guarantee within 15k. MF2 would be probably 3750, guaranteed in 7500. MF 4 probably 1875, guaranteed in 3750, etc.

As I said, there are many ways to make the probability change with the number of kills. It could be made to start at 1 in 10,000, and then rise exponentially to 1 at, say, 20,000 kills. In that case the first 5000 kills would not be much different to now, but if you were unlucky enough to make it past 15,000 kills the chance of a drop would be much higher, and would increase very rapidly.

[Kashim]

This is true, you could definitely do it another way.
Either way, I'm only hunting these until level 30. I have MF1, but at 30 I'm finally getting the skill to make my BWM gear actually GOOD, and I'm going to go finish off quests like Lodar that I have been waiting on.
Started at level 22. Now level 27.

If you were wondering, my plan for the BWM gear:

The BWM debuff is harsh, but I think I've found a way to actually do well with that gear. In fact, it's better gear than any other I've found. By using the dual wield skillset, I can get both of the +45% AC daggers into the same attack time (back to 3AP per swing with the jewel), and the -50% AC debuff completely goes away and turns into a +40% buff. But wait, there's more! This lets me equip the very nice helm and armor, giving me a huge block chance for free. But wait, there's more! % modifiers applied to the gigantic +90% AC coming off of the daggers are far more effective. Using the dagger skill gotten from charwood, I get another +90% of that 90%, resulting in another +81%AC at the cost of only 2 skill points. At level 45, I'll even be able to dual-wield specialize for another +45%. All in all, even after the BWM debuff, I end up with +166AC +87.4BC coming off of just the 4 items.

I still need to do calculations on what level this scheme will become less effective than the quickstrike dagger at (it will happen, ad. infinum, the quickstrike dagger is provably best), but I'm assuming that I have some time to do that. 121AC + 75% (base) + 50% from my rings = 246AC at level 30, 291 at 45, with BC over 100%. Now every level gets to go into damage.

[rijackson741]

The daggers have 40% AC, not 45%. Dagger proficiency gives you an additional 30% of base AC per level, so two levels would give you 60%*80%. Dual wield specialization gives you another 50% of the base AC. So your AC would be 80%+60%*80%+50%*80%-50%=118%. Compare that to two Balanced Steel Swords: 64%+60%*64%+50%*64%=134%.

Edit: You are obviously talking about the Blackwater Poisoned Dagger. I had forgotten about that one. So 90%+60%*90%+50%*90%-50%=139%. That's pretty good, because you get a chance of weak poison as well (although the damage is not very good). It might be fun to dual wield those even without the other Blackwater gear. Maybe I'll go and get myself a pair to add to my collection

[Kashim]

Wouldn't the poisoned be 90%(base)+90%*90%(lvl3 dagger prof)+50%*90%(specialization)-50(BWM) = 90+81+45-50 = 166. I think you calculated using lvl 2 dagger prof, not level 3.
Given, this is speculative. At the moment, I only have lvl 1 dagger prof, so I don't know if there's a level requirement on 3. I only listed 2 skill points cost because you get level 1 from completing the quest, it doesn't cost you an actual skill point.
It does require thought about the opportunity cost of spending 5 skills on it though. The realization that just throwing all of those into accuracy could have gotten me +60% was never far from my mind. I'm not sure this is the best way, but it will certainly be a fun way. However, this note has deviated from the subject of Extraordinary and Legendary items.

[rijackson741]

Given, this is speculative. At the moment, I only have lvl 1 dagger prof, so I don't know if there's a level requirement on 3. I only listed 2 skill points cost because you get level 1 from completing the quest, it doesn't cost you an actual skill point.

I see. You did say at the cost of only 2 skill points, as opposed to 2 skill levels. There are no level requirements to get all three levels.

this note has deviated from the subject of Extraordinary and Legendary items.

True

[Kashim]

So I found that with the "Save your game with 4 gargoyle trainers surrounding you then kill them and if they don't drop, then reload" method, I can kill, if I'm going at full speed, approx. 2400 trainers/hour. (40 every minute). I have now done this for two hours, with no drop, even with MF1. Assuming that I slowed down at points for various reasons (either I clicked down the find dialog before I saw it and then had to run around and gather stuff, or other such) I still probably managed 2000/hour, which is actually quite a staggering speed. 2 hours in, no drop. With MF1, it should only take me 6,667 trainers to likely see one drop, so while I'm not quite there yet, I will get there.

Since other people were having trouble getting the "surrounded by 4 guys then save" set up, I'll give you a hint for how I did it: I didn't stop them from attacking me, I just fled whenever they did. Eventually, I got surrounded by 3, and had another one 1 step off. I saved there, and reloaded it until the last guy moved closer before I was attacked and I got up the save dialog. It took a lot of tries, but whenever it failed, I just killed the three and then reloaded, effectively grinding while trying to make the grind more efficient. Also, make sure you are on the horizontal with the pile of bones in the center, the master above doesn't like to come further down than that.

Dangit, I WANT that RoLS, and this seems to be the only feasible way to get it. Actually waiting for respawns would slow me down a LOT, though I would get to keep the exp and money, I figure that my time is better spent doing it this way and then leveling up later.

Well, theoretically, I should get approximately 1 RoLS every 3 hours this way. Here's hoping I can hunt up a pair and then never step food in this god-forsaken dungeon again.

[Firefly84]

@Kashim: MF 1 is nothing. I have MF 10 and finally each legendary at least once and my second RolS.
Also 6x Valuha's Silk Robe and 2x Shimmering Hat. (I stopped using SP for MF after getting my first hat)

My Top 5:
Kazaul Imp = 5169
Kazaul Spawn = 4635
Shadow gargoyle Master = 2886
White Wyrm trainer = 2874
White Wyrm Master = 2817

I'm now lv 86 and have 317 HP.
Many levels I gained for those branchenders...

[rijackson741]

With MF1, it should only take me 6,667 trainers to likely see one drop,

With MF 1 you have a 63% chance of getting a RoLS within 6667 kills. Which is to say, you have a 37% chance of not getting one

so while I'm not quite there yet, I will get there.

Probably