RoLS estimate?

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rijackson741
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Re: RoLS estimate?

Post by rijackson741 » Tue May 29, 2018 11:22 am

You will have to forgive me if I am wrong, but I think you misunderstand how it works. You would not be the first to have this misunderstanding.

You seem to be under the impression that the more kills you have the higher the chance that the next kill will yield the ring. That is not correct. With no levels of MF the chance that you will get the ring is always 1 in 10,000, no matter how many kills you have. If you get one level of MF, then from that point on it is 1 in 6666. More levels of MF increase your chances further, but nothing you have done in the past makes any difference to what those chances are.
Level: 64, XP: 4734786, HP: 196, AC: 246%, AD: 49-59, AP: 3, ECC: 25%, CM: 3, BC: 127%, DR: 2
Gold: 232355 | RoLS: 1, RoL: 1, GoW: 1
HH: 1, CS: 2, IF: 4, Ev: 3, Re: 2, WP:DA: 1, WP:1S: 1, AP:L: 1, FS:DW: 2, S:DW: 1
SR

Zukero
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Re: RoLS estimate?

Post by Zukero » Tue May 29, 2018 11:53 am

Yup, you may have killed eleventy bazillion of them, you still only have about 60% chance of getting one within the next 10,000 kills.
Lvl: 78, XP: 8622632, Gold: 271542, RoLS: 1, ElyR: -, RoL: -, ChaR: 1, GoLF: 1, ShaF: 1, SRoV: 1, VSH: 1, WMC: 1, GoW: 1
HP: 71, AC: 301%, AD: 38-47, AP: 3, ECC: 50%, CM: 3.75, BC: 101%, DR: 2

sdevaney
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Re: RoLS estimate?

Post by sdevaney » Tue May 29, 2018 5:54 pm

I like to look at it like tossing a coin. Tossing a fair coin is an example of probability distribution that is memoryless. Every time you toss the coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it coming up heads. It doesn’t matter whether or not the last five times you threw the coin it came up consistently tails.

Zukero
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Re: RoLS estimate?

Post by Zukero » Tue May 29, 2018 10:15 pm

Except this coin is a die with 10, 000 faces and 9,999 of them mean you lost.
Lvl: 78, XP: 8622632, Gold: 271542, RoLS: 1, ElyR: -, RoL: -, ChaR: 1, GoLF: 1, ShaF: 1, SRoV: 1, VSH: 1, WMC: 1, GoW: 1
HP: 71, AC: 301%, AD: 38-47, AP: 3, ECC: 50%, CM: 3.75, BC: 101%, DR: 2

Dnadnnoid
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Re: RoLS estimate?

Post by Dnadnnoid » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:25 pm

I spent some time in that dungeon lately after playing for years i finally decided to actually try and find that ring.

Ive killed 1103 masters and 1076 trainers so far and no ring yet. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Fecund_mint
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Re: RoLS estimate?

Post by Fecund_mint » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:07 am

The Gray wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 2:44 am
rijackson741 wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 2:13 pm
Your current kills have no effect on the chances in the future.
If I increased my Magical Finder skill during my RoLS grind, as a result of upgrading, did it reset my chances of getting the ring or did it just increase it even more?
I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but your chances of getting the ring are 'reset' each kill. You're no more likely to get the ring on your 100,000th kill than on your 1st. The magic finder skill now just makes it so that on each kill, you have a 0.015% chance instead of a 0.01% chance (assuming you go from level 0 to level 1 in the skill). Getting the skill in the middle of grinding won't affect any of the kills you got in the past.

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