Extraordinary and legendary items

[Kashim]

MF10 seems like total overkill to me. I'm not in it to collect one of everything, just to collect the things that I actually want to use (the RoLS is actually the only item that I want to use out of all of the legendaries. MAYBE I would go get a RoL, but likely not.

When I look at putting points into the MF skill, I start to consider them a waste at a certain point. Here's why:
(It gets messy after 4MF, so numbers are approximate)
MF STAT: Odds : Reduction in average kills needed
0MF: 1/10,000 : 0
1MF: 1/6,667 : 3,333
2MF: 1/5,000 : 1,667
3MF: 1/4,000 : 1,000
4MF: 1/3,333 : 777
5MF: 1/2,857 : 476
6MF: 1/2,500 : 357
7MF: 1/2,222 : 288
8MF: 1/2,000 : 222
9MF: 1/1,818 : 182
10MF: 1/1,666 : 151

You can see the trend. The fact is, killing another 151 guys doesn't seem that bad to me, so sure, I'll wipe out the extra few guys in order to save the skill point. The same is true up until about the 3MF point. The extra 1000 guys does start to get intense. I haven't decided if I want to go level grind up to 4MF, or if I want to just stick with it for the very few legendaries I actually want to use. My problem is that there are so many other things I want to spend those skill points on that I can't seem to decide to spend them on MF. Especially when I'm getting 2000 kills/hour, even 3MF is only saving me ~30 minutes per find.

Kudos to you for having 10MF though. If we ever get a newgame+ feature, you'll be able to save all of those legendaries onto a new char and not use up all of the skill points. That would be a HECK of a starting build, and a crazy powerful character. Not that you aren't now. Level 80+ is something I can only dream of down here at level 40. Heck, you've already almost reduced your legendaries down to extraordinary rarity, which is really impressive.

[rijackson741]

I'm not sure what you mean by "average kills needed", but for a 50% chance of getting a drop the number of kills needed are

Code: Select all

MF    kills
0     6932
1     4621
2     3466
3     2773
4     2311
5     1981
6     1733
7     1540
8     1386
9     1260
10    1155

The formula is this:

MF2.png

p is the drop rate, P is the probability of getting a drop, MF is the number of levels of magic finder, N is the number of kills.

[Firefly84]

Maybe.
But with MF 18 I would have a similar drop rate like arluir skin (a 1% drop chance).
I had to restart for this build after buying a new smartphone due to more internal memory for our train time table app.
But even then you need luck. For each enemy the drop chance is the same...

[Kashim]

yeah, rijackson, you're right about the equation, I never bother to actually do all of the math. I guess what I was actually documenting was the "odds change". Having never done well in my statistics class, but playing a LOT of card/dice games, I always end up with my calculations slightly off, but close. To my brain, 1/1000 means that I need 1000 draws in order to achieve a 50/50 chance. Even though I know this isn't accurate, it's a form of math that makes very easy sense to my brain, and the end results aren't terribly far off of the actual values.

Since my brain isn't very good at doing logarithms, I'm always content knowing that 1/1000 is "more likely than not to trigger after 1000 draws, and it's somewhere circa 60%". It won't take me through the world series of poker, but it will usually help me determine when I should have found something versus not.

[rijackson741]

My job requires a lot of math, and like anything else if you do a lot of it then it becomes easier. I didn't do very well in may statistics class either, but since then I've had a lot of practice

Your approach is probably better for playing cards. "Hang on a minute while I fire up my computer and do a few calculations, then I'll tell you if I want to raise" probably won't get you invited back to the next card game

You may find this handy:

Andors Trail game mechanics - v1.xlsx

I've posted it before, but I can't find the thread.

[FiWiFaKi]

Really dumb question, but how do you derive your equation:

P = 1 - (1-p)^N

By looking at the chance of finding it rather than the chance of not finding it? Since I can easily derive it this way:

Probability of not finding item is: P(1) = (1-p), and then P(2) = (1-p)*(1-p), since if you found it you'll stop, so very quickly we can generalize probability to not find it is P = (1-p)^n, and then since there are only two outcomes, the probability to find it is one minus that, so: P = 1 - (1-p)^N, then rearrange:

1-P = (1-p)^N, and solve for N --> ln(1-P)/ln(1-p) ... Adding MF in there is easy, and it's simply substitute p + MF/2 for the current p. I believe that it's just a geometric distribution.

Not sure how good you're at statistics, but do you have any good statistics textbook reference material that you recommend? I've taken one engineering statistics course which is generally more difficult than the standard university statistics course, but I'm looking for something just so I have a good all-around idea, doesn't need to be written in simple terms.

Looking at statistics fields based on what's offered at my past universtity: http://www.ucalgary.ca/pubs/calendar/cu ... stics.html

I'd like something that would summarize courses 213,217,321,323 with any meaningful outcomes and applicable formulas for things, I believe I've covered most of these topics throughout my two degrees, so just refresher for that. Other topics there that interest me are 421(I understand it well), 429(I understand it well), 507, 519, 523, 525, 531, 637, 701, 703, 721, 723. I know it's a rather big swamp of courses, but I'd enjoy understand some of it a bit better.

In other news, yesterday I found a Valugha's shimmering hat and Silk robe of Valugha - I've found 5 robe's before finding that hat T_T. I have a beastly AC/AD with 272 AC and 46-60 AD at level 36. He's more or less complete now with CS1,CS2,IF1,IF2,EV1,EV2,EV3,FS:DW1,FS:DW2... Plus Dark Blessing of Shadow & proficiencies at level one of course. Items currently:

-Valugha's shimmering hat
-Silk robe of Valugha
-Marrowtaint
-BSS (x2)
-Villains Ring (x2)
-Fine gloves of swift attack
-Vacor's boots of attack

I might replace Vacor's boots with Coward's boots, since 3 move speed would be nice. Does move speed have any affect on potions? I feel like since I've been running around with 4 move cost, meat has been lasting me longer... I'm trying to figure out if I use a potion, with lower move cost, and I just walk around, will it last longer? Or does move cost out of combat not do anything?

[rijackson741]

Really dumb question, but how do you derive your equation:

P = 1 - (1-p)^N

By looking at the chance of finding it rather than the chance of not finding it? Since I can easily derive it this way:

Probability of not finding item is: P(1) = (1-p), and then P(2) = (1-p)*(1-p), since if you found it you'll stop, so very quickly we can generalize probability to not find it is P = (1-p)^n, and then since there are only two outcomes, the probability to find it is one minus that, so: P = 1 - (1-p)^N, then rearrange:

1-P = (1-p)^N, and solve for N --> ln(1-P)/ln(1-p) ... Adding MF in there is easy, and it's simply substitute p + MF/2 for the current p. I believe that it's just a geometric distribution.

Exactly correct . 10 out of 10. I'll let you off for the "geometric distribution". It's an arithmetic progression

Not sure how good you're at statistics, but do you have any good statistics textbook reference material that you recommend? I've taken one engineering statistics course which is generally more difficult than the standard university statistics course, but I'm looking for something just so I have a good all-around idea, doesn't need to be written in simple terms.

Looking at statistics fields based on what's offered at my past universtity: http://www.ucalgary.ca/pubs/calendar/cu ... stics.html

I'd like something that would summarize courses 213,217,321,323 with any meaningful outcomes and applicable formulas for things, I believe I've covered most of these topics throughout my two degrees, so just refresher for that. Other topics there that interest me are 421(I understand it well), 429(I understand it well), 507, 519, 523, 525, 531, 637, 701, 703, 721, 723. I know it's a rather big swamp of courses, but I'd enjoy understand some of it a bit better.

I am not a statistician, or even a mathematician. I have used math a lot though, for a lot of years, so I am well versed in it.

Sorry, I don't really have a good statistics book to recommend. The basic books I have are no longer in print. Even if they were available I wouldn't recommend them, so that is probably a good thing The more advanced ones I have are very specific to what I do. There are a couple of on-line books that I refer to sometimes:

http://vassarstats.net/textbook/
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/index.htm

They have the advantage of being free, and therefore in at least one sense they are good

Does move speed have any affect on potions? I feel like since I've been running around with 4 move cost, meat has been lasting me longer... I'm trying to figure out if I use a potion, with lower move cost, and I just walk around, will it last longer? Or does move cost out of combat not do anything?

Outside of combat move cost does nothing. Outside of combat a round is 6 seconds, and effects last a set number of rounds.

[FiWiFaKi]

Mmm, not sure I agree with you, I have the exact same formula 1-(1-p)^k as a cumulative distribution function under Geometric Distribution on wikipedia, but anyway, haha.

Both of the sites look very nice, so thank you for that!

Too bad about move cost not doing anything out of combat, it would have been nice to see move cost somehow related with round length. Like instead of time being measured in actual time, have it measured that 1 round is considered as 30-60MP worth of steps or something, and so then you could lower move costs to make your rounds longer, oh well.

Bleh, I played a bit silly and ended up dying trying to get to Lodar for the first time on something like the 4th floor of the final cave. So I'm giving up on that, and I'll try to get a RoLS instead, when playing at 80% focus, and having gotten 4 of the enemies in attacking range at once (phew), it's taking approximately 4 seconds per reload - so should be 10,000 seconds or a tad under 3 hours until my expected number of them is one. Not as bad as people make it out to be here ^^.

[Zukero]

Great idea for the move cost impacting round length out of combat. I think I'll look into it.

[rijackson741]

Mmm, not sure I agree with you, I have the exact same formula 1-(1-p)^k as a cumulative distribution function under Geometric Distribution on wikipedia, but anyway, haha.

Some confusion there I guess. Based on your statement "1-P = (1-p)^N, and solve for N --> ln(1-P)/ln(1-p) ... Adding MF in there is easy, and it's simply substitute p + MF/2 for the current p. I believe that it's just a geometric distribution.", I assumed you were referring to the effect of MF. That increases the drop chance by 50% of the base drop chance for each level, which is an arithmetic progression.

Too bad about move cost not doing anything out of combat, it would have been nice to see move cost somehow related with round length. Like instead of time being measured in actual time, have it measured that 1 round is considered as 30-60MP worth of steps or something, and so then you could lower move costs to make your rounds longer, oh well.

Longer? Or shorter? If I have, for example, 10 rounds of sustenance it currently takes 60 seconds to get the full benefit. I think lowering move cost should shorten that time. On the other hand, maybe it shouldn't change that at all. It should just make you walk faster in the game