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Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:21 am
by Voom
You're right, it is quite common to have a 75% ECH, which would mean that a char using ElyR would get a 63.3% chance to get either 4, 5, or 6 hits in a round. The char would have a 36.7% chance to get either 0, 1, 2, or 3 hits. So the Bless actor condition basically turns the ElyR into a 4 hit weapon (on average) if assuming the char has around a 70 to 80% chance to hit. Is that overpowered?

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:55 am
by Lady Drager
Too see if it's overpowered, calculate the total amount of damage dealt per round from the ElyR, then compare to various monster stats.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:50 pm
by Voom
Aha, I could use the Weapon Avg DPR comparator for it. Thanks for reminding me. But I will have to have a better estimate than 70 to 80% ECH so that the ECH I plug in represents the exact average b/w 0 to 6 hits per round.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:18 pm
by rijackson741
Voom wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:21 am
Is that overpowered?
Probably not. I'm not convinced that your probability calculations are correct though. You have the probability of 6 hits being substantially higher than the probability of 5 hits, and the probability of 4 hits being substantially higher than the probability of 3 hits. Granted, adding AP on hit may do some weird things to the probability distribution, but that seems too weird :? .

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:11 pm
by Voom
6 hits have a greater chance to happen than 5 hits b/c I was assuming a 75% to hit and 25% to miss.
Both routes (5 & 6) have been given 6 shots to land a hit, but only one lands all 6 and the other misses once.
For 6 hits to happen: .75 x .75 x .75 x .75 x .75 x .75 x 1 possibility = 17.8%
For 5 hits to happen: .75 x .75 x .75 x .75 x .75 x .25 x 1 possibility = 5.9%
If it was 50% to hit and 50% to miss, then 5 & 6 hits would have an equal chance to happen. And they do: 1.6%

Similar with 3 & 4 hits, assuming a 75% to hit and 25% to miss.
Both routes (3 & 4) have been given 5 shots to land a hit, but one misses once and the other misses twice.
Due to that one extra miss, the chances of 3 hits happening decrease substantially.
If we considered 50% to hit and 50% to miss, then we have the same chance for both routes. The only reason we don't have the same chance is b/c 4 hits has 5 possibilities out of 21, according to the chart, and 3 hits only has 4 possibilities.

I took two statistics courses, so I'm sure I"m right about the math. The way to check if everything adds up is you add all the route chances together and you will get 100% (excluding any rounding difference). My only mistake was the chart, which I have since fixed and reposted.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:15 pm
by rijackson741
Yeah. I didn't go through all the calculations, but I looked at them enough to agree that they are correct. As non-intuitive as it seems, there is indeed a higher chance of 6 hits than 5 hits :shock:. And, as you note, the numbers pass the ultimate sanity check, in that the probabilities add to 100%. It's possible for that to happen even when the calculations are wrong, but it's very improbable :D

We will have to name this the "Voom distribution" :mrgreen:

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:17 am
by Voom
The Voom distribution... :lol: It is strange, though, how it works out and the difference b/w 5 & 6, etc., only gets bigger the greater the ECH (and vice versa). In this case, I think the ElyR would be similarly good as RoLS in general for a legendary weapon.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:49 pm
by Lady Drager
rijackson741 wrote:
Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:15 pm
We will have to name this the "Voom distribution" :mrgreen:
So what we have is a case of VD? :shock:
Edit: Does anyone besides Jax find this offensive? If so, I apologize. It was meant to be funny. VD as in Voom Distribution.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:19 pm
by rijackson741
I didn't say I found it offensive. I observed that some might.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:34 pm
by Kashim
As you said, AC would be this thing's best friend, and I like to keep my to hit percentages up in the ~90% range whenever possible (I like reliability)
for 90% to hit:
0.1% chance of 0 hits.
0.3% chance of 1 hit.
4.9% chance of 2 hits.
2.9% chance of 3 hits.
32.8% chance of 4 hits.
5.9% chance of 5 hits.
53.1% chance of 6 hits.

That difference between 75% and 90% has a huge effect on the hit table.

However, comparison to a QSD with 90% hit chance:
0 hits, 0.0001% chance. Not happening.
1 hit, 0.0054% chance. Again, more likely to get a RoLS.
2 hits, .1215% chance. Still, basically not happening.
3 hits, 1.458% chance. Still Very unlikely.
4 hits, 9.8% chance.
5 hits, way higher, 35.4%
6 hits, same chance, 53.1%

The two weapons are relatively comparable once you get them up to 90%+ accuracy (with the QSD still outperforming because of the 5 hit chance). However, anything you have 90% accuracy on is going to be relatively easy to kill anyway. For reference, having an accuracy of 90% requires having ~180 more AC than your target has BC.
Maybe this will help in determining if it is overpowered or not?