What are the chances...
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:47 am
So during the long slog for a RoLS a few things happened that seemed to be pretty rare. And i was wondering what the chances of them happening are. Pardons if my math is worse than i realize.
First unusual event, although i happened at least 3-4 times, was i received 4 items (but no ring) in a drop. I dont know the drop rates for the small rocks, regular health potions, ruby gems and polished gems are, but seeing all 4 in and no ring (several times) was titillating at first, and a let down later. Just multiplying the drop rates will give the chance of seeing all 4 at once. Right?
Second unusual event only happened once. My memory is a little fuzzy on this one but this is what i recall... A Shadow gargoyle master (AC: 125%, AD; 3-6, CC:12%, CM: 3) or a Shadow gargoyle trainer (AC: 90%, AD; 3-6, CC:12%, CM: 3) hit me twice for 16 hp each. At the time i had a DR of 2 which meant that i was hit for the full amount of 18 twice (I think my BC: was 41%). What is the chance either of those monsters could hit me for max damage twice?
Samuel's links in the discussion of hit chance lead to Oskar's Hit tables.
So a SGM (master) should have a (125% - 41% = 84 and 84 on the chart is about a) 72% chance to hit me. So is the chance to be hit twice with those stats about (.72 * .12 * .25)^2 = .0004665 or about .047%? Or about once out of every 2143 rounds a SGM attacks?
A SGT (trainer) should have a (90% - 41% = 49 and 49 on the chart is about a) 50% chance to hit. So (.50 * .12 * .25)^2 = .000225. Or once every 4444 rounds a SGT attacks?
Just a malingering set of questions during the long grind for RoLS...
First unusual event, although i happened at least 3-4 times, was i received 4 items (but no ring) in a drop. I dont know the drop rates for the small rocks, regular health potions, ruby gems and polished gems are, but seeing all 4 in and no ring (several times) was titillating at first, and a let down later. Just multiplying the drop rates will give the chance of seeing all 4 at once. Right?
Second unusual event only happened once. My memory is a little fuzzy on this one but this is what i recall... A Shadow gargoyle master (AC: 125%, AD; 3-6, CC:12%, CM: 3) or a Shadow gargoyle trainer (AC: 90%, AD; 3-6, CC:12%, CM: 3) hit me twice for 16 hp each. At the time i had a DR of 2 which meant that i was hit for the full amount of 18 twice (I think my BC: was 41%). What is the chance either of those monsters could hit me for max damage twice?
Samuel's links in the discussion of hit chance lead to Oskar's Hit tables.
So a SGM (master) should have a (125% - 41% = 84 and 84 on the chart is about a) 72% chance to hit me. So is the chance to be hit twice with those stats about (.72 * .12 * .25)^2 = .0004665 or about .047%? Or about once out of every 2143 rounds a SGM attacks?
A SGT (trainer) should have a (90% - 41% = 49 and 49 on the chart is about a) 50% chance to hit. So (.50 * .12 * .25)^2 = .000225. Or once every 4444 rounds a SGT attacks?
Just a malingering set of questions during the long grind for RoLS...